Nicholas Clark

Forecasting ecosystem responses to environmental change

There is a growing consensus that using models to anticipate the future is vital to mitigate the impacts of environmental change on ecosystems. Yet most ecological models are one-off attempts to predict what ecosystems might be like in many years or decades. This makes it hard for decision-makers to use these models. It also favours models that are not easily scrutinised and improved. This research will use an iterative cycle to 1) forecast how species occurrences and abundances will change over short timescales; 2) use predictions to inspect model failures and 3) improve models so that we can continue to learn. This represents a new way of thinking in ecology that, like weather forecasting, has the power to advance our understanding of ecological processes.

I am looking for students who want to work within a vibrant team of quantitative ecologists and spatio-temporal modellers to tackle interesting questions in ecological modeling and forecasting. This project will help develop the candidate’s skills in critical thinking, project management, data management and analysis, writing and communication. Expected applications of the project are incredibly diverse, meaning the student will be well prepared for a future career in research or with government and non-government land management, biosecurity or conservation agencies.

How is global change impacting ecological communities?

Global change is heavily impacting natural ecosystems thorough climate change, landscape alterations, invasive species and many other processes. We are offering projects investigating time series from around the world to ask key questions such as:

Do ensemble forecasts outperform forecasts from individual models in ecological settings?

How are wildlife populations from different groups (insects, mammals, birds) responding?

How does climate variablity affect population dynamics?

How does population variance and stability change over time and in relation to climate variation?

How are Australia's marine ecosystem responding to climate change?

We are looking for students interested in understanding how globally pressing changes are impacting our wildlife communities. Ideal candidates will have demonstrated skills in statistical modelling, coding experience (in any programming language), and strong written and communication skills. You do not need to have experience in wildlife ecology, but you must have a keen interest to learn.

Developing new statistical methods to advance near-term forecasting

What will nature look like in the future? This question is difficult to answer because ecology, and ecosystem dynamics, are very complex. The abundances of species, for example, fluctuate for many reasons. Food and shelter availability limit survival. Biotic interactions affect colonization and vital rates. Severe weather events and climate variation alter habitat suitability. Current changes in abundance can have carry-on effects on future abundance, irrespective of local conditions. These sources of variation make it difficult to understand, let alone predict, ecosystem change. Another problem when trying to understand these effects is that common statistical methods for analysing time series are not suitable for dealing with most ecological data (which can have many zeros, missing values and are often represented as multivariate count data).

This project aims to develop new modeling tools that will allow researchers around the globe to better analyse their data. Work will centre around the development of Bayesian dynamic models for time series and forecasting purposes. Ideal candidates should be interested in software development and statistical programming, so candidates with backgrounds in computer science or some othe field that provides skills in programming will be well placed to make an impact here. It is not necessary that you have strong skills in time series analysis or forecasting, but you should be keen to learn about these fields.

Modeling and forecasting paralysis tick infestation rates in Australia

Tick paralysis, caused by neurotoxins contained in the saliva of paralysis ticks, is a life-threatening condition for dogs and cats requiring immediate medical attention. In Australia tick paralysis is a leading cause of emergency admissions, with tens of thousands of tick paralysis cases admitted to veterinary emergency services each year. While preventative treatments and avoidance of tick-prone areas during periods of heightened risk are effective reduction measures, surveillance systems are inadequate to provide timely information to clinicians and pet owners located in areas most at-risk.

Working as part of a vibrant research team involving a diversity of collaborators, students will benefit in the following ways:

(1) Experience in data mining and generating critical summaries for time series data

(2) Quantitative analysis of multistructure datasets

(3) Contributing to the planning, writing and submission of peer-reviewed publications

We are looking for students who are interested in the health of pets and in using data to inform disease management. Ideal candidates will have demonstrated skills in statistical modeling, coding experience (in any programming language), and strong written and communication skills. You do not need to have experience in veterinary epidemiology, but you must have a keen interest to learn.