Overview
Background
I’m an Associate Professor of Psychology driven by the goal of safeguarding humanity’s future through effective AI governance. My career began with a strong focus on evidence synthesis, meta-analysis, and knowledge translation in health, education, and leadership settings. This background honed my ability to tackle large, complex problems by integrating insights from multiple research disciplines, and by designing interventions that reach people at scale.
I now channel these skills into understanding and mitigating the risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence. Drawing on my experience leading large, multi-stakeholder projects, I use rigorous methods—from systematic reviews to agile-based project management—to generate robust, transparent evidence for policymakers and practitioners. Through roles such as Director at Effective Altruism Australia, I also contribute to shaping philanthropic and public policy strategies around AI risk.
Ultimately, my work aims to merge best-practice research with real-world solutions, ensuring that advanced AI is developed and governed responsibly for the long-term benefit of society.
Availability
- Associate Professor Michael Noetel is:
- Available for supervision
- Media expert
Fields of research
Qualifications
- Bachelor (Honours), University of Sydney
- Masters (Coursework), The University of Queensland
- Doctor of Philosophy, Australian Catholic University
Research interests
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How do we do more good with our time and money (Effective Altruism)
How do we most effectively have a positive impact on the world? This stream of work involves helping people make better personal and policy decisions using reason and evidence. My approach integrates cost-effectiveness analysis, behavioural science, and education to address pressing global challenges.
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AI governance and existential risk
I investigate how advanced AI systems might threaten humanity’s future and what governance measures could mitigate these risks. My work focuses on existential safety, policy frameworks, and cross-sector collaboration to align AI developments with human values.
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Mapping AI hazards
Through the Survey of AI Risks (SARA) and the MIT AI Risk Repository, I map known and emerging AI threats. This research identifies harmful capabilities, timelines, and possible interventions, guiding policymakers and technologists toward effective countermeasures.
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Scaling up behaviour change through online education
How do we more cost-effectively scale-up behaviour change? Can online-learning bridge the gap? If so, how do we design online learning to better change behaviour?
Research impacts
My research has delivered practical benefits by translating evidence-based approaches into scalable interventions—initially in health and education, and now in AI governance. Past efforts helped improve physical activity levels in over 50,000 school students, guided practitioners with evidence-informed teaching resources, and influenced national curricula. Building on this success, I apply the same high-impact framework to emerging AI risks, collaborating with policymakers, philanthropic organisations, and industry to shape safer AI systems. By providing clear, reliable evidence on governance strategies, I help decision-makers adopt effective standards and practices, ultimately mitigating societal harms and driving responsible AI innovation.
Works
Search Professor Michael Noetel’s works on UQ eSpace
Featured
2024
Journal Article
The AI Risk Repository : A Comprehensive Meta-Review, Database, and Taxonomy of Risks From Artificial Intelligence
Slattery, Peter, Saeri, Alexander K., Grundy, Emily A. C., Graham, Jess, Noetel, Michael, Uuk, Risto, Dao, James, Pour, Soroush, Casper, Stephen and Thompson, Neil (2024). The AI Risk Repository : A Comprehensive Meta-Review, Database, and Taxonomy of Risks From Artificial Intelligence. AGI - Artificial General Intelligence - Robotics - Safety & Alignment, 1 (1). doi: 10.70777/agi.v1i1.10881
2025
Journal Article
Cost-effectiveness of support for health professionals to implement physical activity promotion: a protocol for within-trial and modelled economic evaluations of the PROMOTE-PA effectiveness-implementation hybrid trial
Wang, Belinda, Sherrington, Catherine, Baldwin, Jennifer N, Hassett, Leanne, Purcell, Kate, Savage, Roslyn, Tiedemann, Anne, Chagpar, Sakina, Cheung, Daniel, Noetel, Michael, Clutterbuck, Georgina, Howard, Kirsten and Pinheiro, Marina (2025). Cost-effectiveness of support for health professionals to implement physical activity promotion: a protocol for within-trial and modelled economic evaluations of the PROMOTE-PA effectiveness-implementation hybrid trial. BMJ Open, 15 (4) e098452, e098452-4. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-098452
2024
Journal Article
Promotion of Physical Activity by Health Professionals (PROMOTE-PA): protocol for effectiveness outcomes in a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation cluster randomised controlled trial
Baldwin, Jennifer Naomi, Purcell, Kate, Hassett, Leanne, Tiedemann, Anne, Pinheiro, Marina, Savage, Roslyn, Wang, Belinda, Haynes, Abby, West, Kerry, Noetel, Michael, Richards, Bethan, Jennings, Matthew, Gupta, Sandeep, Smith, Ben J., Treacy, Daniel, Halliday, Mark, Harvey, Lisa A., Phongsavan, Philayrath, Rogers, Kris, Howard, Kirsten, Bauman, Adrian, Hamdorf, Phil, Shaw, Ayden, Walkley, Jeff, Dwyer, Genevieve, Lonsdale, Chris, Reece, Lindsey, Clutterbuck, Georgina, Lovitt, Lorraine ... Sherrington, Catherine (2024). Promotion of Physical Activity by Health Professionals (PROMOTE-PA): protocol for effectiveness outcomes in a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ Nutrition, Prevention and Health, 7 (2), 259-269. doi: 10.1136/bmjnph-2024-000901
2024
Journal Article
Reallocating time between 24-h movement behaviors for obesity management across the lifespan: a pooled data meta-analysis of more than 9800 participants from seven countries
Gába, Aleš, Hartwig, Timothy B., Jašková, Paulína, Sanders, Taren, Dygrýn, Jan, Vencálek, Ondřej, Antczak, Devan, Conigrave, James, Parker, Phillip, del Pozo Cruz, Borja, Fairclough, Stuart J., Halson, Shona, Hron, Karel, Noetel, Michael, Ávila-García, Manuel, Cabanas-Sánchez, Veronica, Cavero-Redondo, Iván, Curtis, Rachel G., da Costa, Bruno G. G., del Pozo-Cruz, Jesus, García-Hermoso, Antonio, Leahy, Angus A., Lubans, David R., Maher, Carol A., Martínez-Gómez, David, Meredith-Jones, Kim, Redondo-Tébar, Andrés, Sabia, Séverine, Silva, Kelly S. ... Lonsdale, Chris (2024). Reallocating time between 24-h movement behaviors for obesity management across the lifespan: a pooled data meta-analysis of more than 9800 participants from seven countries. Sports Medicine, 55 (3) e009773, 1-14. doi: 10.1007/s40279-024-02148-4
2024
Journal Article
Development and evaluation of the Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation to deliver Physical Activity in School Scale (COM-PASS)
Verdonschot, A., Beauchamp, M. R., Brusseau, T. A., Chinapaw, M. J.M., Christiansen, L. B., Daly-Smith, A., Eather, N., Fairclough, S. J., Faulkner, G., Foweather, L., García-Hermoso, A., Ha, A. S., Harris, N., Jaakkola, T., Jago, R., Kennedy, S. G., Lander, N. J., Lonsdale, C., Manios, Y., Mazzoli, E., Murtagh, E., Nathan, N., Naylor, P. J., Noetel, M., O’Keeffe, B., Resaland, G. K., Ridgers, N. D., Ridley, K., Riley, N. ... Lubans, D. R. (2024). Development and evaluation of the Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation to deliver Physical Activity in School Scale (COM-PASS). International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 21 (1) 93, 1. doi: 10.1186/s12966-024-01640-4
2024
Journal Article
Movement mediates the relationship between socioeconomic position and socioemotional outcomes in youth
Wilhite, Katrina, Noetel, Michael, del Pozo Cruz, Borja, Lonsdale, Chris and Sanders, Taren (2024). Movement mediates the relationship between socioeconomic position and socioemotional outcomes in youth. Journal of Physical Activity and Health, 22 (2), 224-234. doi: 10.1123/jpah.2024-0114
2024
Journal Article
Does the apple fall far from the tree? A meta-analysis linking parental factors to children's intrinsic and extrinsic goals
Ferber, Kelly A., Bradshaw, Emma L., Noetel, Michael, Wong, Tsz Ying, Ahn, Jiseul S., Parker, Philip D. and Ryan, Richard M. (2024). Does the apple fall far from the tree? A meta-analysis linking parental factors to children's intrinsic and extrinsic goals. Psychological Bulletin, 150 (10), 1155-1177. doi: 10.1037/bul0000448
2024
Journal Article
Promotion of Physical Activity by Health Professionals (PROMOTE-PA): protocol for effectiveness outcomes in a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation cluster randomised controlled trial
Baldwin, Jennifer Naomi, Purcell, Kate, Hassett, Leanne, Tiedemann, Anne, Pinheiro, Marina, Savage, Roslyn, Wang, Belinda, Haynes, Abby, West, Kerry, Noetel, Michael, Richards, Bethan, Jennings, Matthew, Gupta, Sandeep, Smith, Ben J, Treacy, Daniel, Halliday, Mark, Harvey, Lisa A, Phongsavan, Philayrath, Rogers, Kris, Howard, Kirsten, Bauman, Adrian, Hamdorf, Phil, Shaw, Ayden, Walkley, Jeff, Dwyer, Genevieve, Lonsdale, Chris, Reece, Lindsey, Clutterbuck, Georgina, Lovitt, Lorraine ... Sherrington, Catherine (2024). Promotion of Physical Activity by Health Professionals (PROMOTE-PA): protocol for effectiveness outcomes in a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health, 7 (2) e000901, e000901-269. doi: 10.1136/bmjnph-2024-000901
2024
Journal Article
Effect of exercise for depression: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials
Noetel, Michael, Sanders, Taren, Gallardo-Gómez, Daniel, Taylor, Paul, del Pozo Cruz, Borja, van den Hoek, Daniel, Smith, Jordan J., Mahoney, John, Spathis, Jemima, Moresi, Mark, Pagano, Rebecca, Pagano, Lisa, Vasconcellos, Roberta, Arnott, Hugh, Varley, Benjamin, Parker, Philip, Biddle, Stuart and Lonsdale, Chris (2024). Effect of exercise for depression: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. BMJ, 384 e075847, 1-17. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2023-075847
2024
Journal Article
Improving physical activity and screen time in Australian outside school hours care: Study protocol
Maher, Carol, Christian, Hayley, Nathan, Nicole, Okely, Anthony, Bogomolova, Svetlana, Lewis, Lucy K., Cliff, Dylan P., Esterman, Adrian, Milte, Rachel, Rosenkranz, Richard R., Curtis, Rachel G., Brinsley, Jacinta, Ferguson, Ty, Virgara, Rosa, Richardson, Mandy, Brannelly, Kylie, Stanley, Rebecca, Schranz, Natasha, Campbell, Perry, Weaver, R. Glenn, Noetel, Michael and Wolfenden, Luke (2024). Improving physical activity and screen time in Australian outside school hours care: Study protocol. Pediatric Research. doi: 10.1038/s41390-024-03464-1
2024
Journal Article
Harnessing Artificial Intelligence in Generative Content for enhancing motivation in learning
Guo, Jiesi, Ma, Ying, Li, Tingting, Noetel, Michael, Liao, Kewen and Greiff, Samuel (2024). Harnessing Artificial Intelligence in Generative Content for enhancing motivation in learning. Learning and Individual Differences, 116 102547, 102547. doi: 10.1016/j.lindif.2024.102547
2024
Journal Article
An umbrella review of the benefits and risks associated with youths’ interactions with electronic screens
Sanders, Taren, Noetel, Michael, Parker, Philip, Del Pozo Cruz, Borja, Biddle, Stuart, Ronto, Rimante, Hulteen, Ryan, Parker, Rhiannon, Thomas, George, De Cocker, Katrien, Salmon, Jo, Hesketh, Kylie, Weeks, Nicole, Arnott, Hugh, Devine, Emma, Vasconcellos, Roberta, Pagano, Rebecca, Sherson, Jamie, Conigrave, James and Lonsdale, Chris (2024). An umbrella review of the benefits and risks associated with youths’ interactions with electronic screens. Nature Human Behaviour, 8 (1), 82-99. doi: 10.1038/s41562-023-01712-8
2023
Journal Article
Optimal dose and type of physical activity to improve functional capacity and minimise adverse events in acutely hospitalised older adults: a systematic review with dose-response network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials
Gallardo-Gómez, Daniel, del Pozo-Cruz, Jesús, Pedder, Hugo, Alfonso-Rosa, Rosa M, Álvarez-Barbosa, Francisco, Noetel, Michael, Jasper, Unyime, Chastin, Sebastien, Ramos-Munell, Javier and del Pozo Cruz, Borja (2023). Optimal dose and type of physical activity to improve functional capacity and minimise adverse events in acutely hospitalised older adults: a systematic review with dose-response network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 57 (19), 1-8. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2022-106409
2023
Conference Publication
Movement Mediates The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Position And Socio-Emotional Outcomes
Wilhite, Katrina Louise, Noetel, Michael, del Pozo Cruz, Borja, Lonsdale, Chris and Sanders, Taren (2023). Movement Mediates The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Position And Socio-Emotional Outcomes. American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) Annual Meeting 2023, Denver, CO United States, 30 May - 2 June 2023. Philadelphia, PA United States: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. doi: 10.1249/01.mss.0000981140.07004.e6
2023
Conference Publication
Movement Mediates The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Position And Socio-Emotional Outcomes
Wilhite, Katrina Louise, Noetel, Michael, Cruz, Borja del Pozo, Lonsdale, Chris and Sanders, Taren (2023). Movement Mediates The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Position And Socio-Emotional Outcomes. Annual Meeting of the American-College-of-Sports-Medicine (ACSM), Denver Co, May 30-Jun 02, 2023. PHILADELPHIA: LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS.
2023
Journal Article
Socioeconomic position as a predictor of youth's movement trajectory profiles between ages 10 and 14 years
Wilhite, Katrina, del Pozo Cruz, Borja, Noetel, Michael, Lonsdale, Chris, Ridgers, Nicola D., Maher, Carol, Bradshaw, Emma and Sanders, Taren (2023). Socioeconomic position as a predictor of youth's movement trajectory profiles between ages 10 and 14 years. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 20 (1) 88, 1-14. doi: 10.1186/s12966-023-01491-5
2023
Journal Article
Prediction versus explanation in educational psychology: a cross-theoretical approach to using teacher behaviour to predict student engagement in physical education
Noetel, Michael, Parker, Philip, Dicke, Theresa, Beauchamp, Mark R., Ntoumanis, Nikos, Hulteen, Ryan M., Diezmann, Carmel, Yeung, Alexander, Ahmadi, Asghar, Vasconcellos, Diego, Mahoney, John, Datta, Poulomee, Doidge, Scott and Lonsdale, Chris (2023). Prediction versus explanation in educational psychology: a cross-theoretical approach to using teacher behaviour to predict student engagement in physical education. Educational Psychology Review, 35 (3) 73. doi: 10.1007/s10648-023-09786-6
2023
Journal Article
A classification system for teachers’ motivational behaviors recommended in self-determination theory interventions
Ahmadi, Asghar, Noetel, Michael, Parker, Philip, Ryan, Richard M., Ntoumanis, Nikos, Reeve, Johnmarshall, Beauchamp, Mark, Dicke, Theresa, Yeung, Alexander, Ahmadi, Malek, Bartholomew, Kimberley, Chiu, Thomas K. F., Curran, Thomas, Erturan, Gokce, Flunger, Barbara, Frederick, Christina, Froiland, John Mark, González-Cutre, David, Haerens, Leen, Jeno, Lucas Matias, Koka, Andre, Krijgsman, Christa, Langdon, Jody, White, Rhiannon Lee, Litalien, David, Lubans, David, Mahoney, John, Nalipay, Ma. Jenina N., Patall, Erika ... Lonsdale, Chris (2023). A classification system for teachers’ motivational behaviors recommended in self-determination theory interventions. Journal of Educational Psychology, 115 (8), 1158-1176. doi: 10.1037/edu0000783
2023
Journal Article
Exercise to treat psychopathology and other clinical outcomes in schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Gallardo-Gómez, Daniel, Noetel, Michael, Álvarez-Barbosa, Francisco, Alfonso-Rosa, Rosa María, Munell, Javier Ramos, del Pozo Cruz, Borja and del Pozo-Cruz, Jesús (2023). Exercise to treat psychopathology and other clinical outcomes in schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. European Psychiatry, 66 (1) e40, 1-28. doi: 10.1192/j.eurpsy.2023.24
2023
Journal Article
Evaluating remote facilitation intensity for multi-national translation of nurse-initiated stroke protocols (QASC Australasia): a protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial
Fasugba, O., Dale, S., McInnes, E., Cadilhac, D. A., Noetel, M., Coughlan, K., McElduff, B., Kim, J., Langley, T., Cheung, N. W., Hill, K., Pollnow, V., Page, K., Sanjuan Menendez, E., Neal, E., Griffith, S., Christie, L. J., Slark, J., Ranta, A., Levi, C., Grimshaw, J. M. and Middleton, S. (2023). Evaluating remote facilitation intensity for multi-national translation of nurse-initiated stroke protocols (QASC Australasia): a protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial. Implementation Science, 18 (1) 2. doi: 10.1186/s13012-023-01260-9
Supervision
Availability
- Associate Professor Michael Noetel is:
- Available for supervision
Before you email them, read our advice on how to contact a supervisor.
Available projects
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Improving decision-making and epistemics
"When we think about doing good in the world we usually think about solving specific problems, and doing so better than existing institutions and organisations. But you could also improve the world in a different way: by making it easier for key institutions and decision-makers to learn about the world and solve problems. This might involve helping people have better ‘epistemics’ – ways of gathering information and using it in reasoning – e.g. by helping people avoid common thinking errors, better evaluate expertise, or make more accurate predictions." 80,000 hours—Click for a longer rationale for why this topic might be important.
Click the linked title (or here) for an up-to-date list of project ideas related to this area.
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Building effective altruism
"Scared Straight is a program that takes kids who have committed misdemeanors to visit prisons and meet criminals to confront their likely future if they don’t change their ways. The concept proved popular not just as a social program but as entertainment; it was adapted for both an acclaimed documentary and a TV show on A&E, which broke ratings records for the network upon its premiere. There’s just one problem with Scared Straight: multiple studies have found that the program actually increases crime. The effect is so significant that the Washington State Institute for Public Policy estimated that each $1 spent on Scared Straight programs causes more than $200 worth of social harm.1 Research shows that many attempts to do good are like Scared Straight. But while many attempts to do good fail, some succeed, and the best are exceptional. One example of an outstanding opportunity is providing bed nets that protect people from malaria in sub-saharan Africa. The charity evaluator GiveWell estimates that a donation of <$2,000 to the Against Malaria Foundation will save someone’s life. But many people aren’t aware of the best ways to help others, and as a result, they miss opportunities to make a tremendous difference. Effective altruism is a growing social movement dedicated to using evidence and reason to figure out how to benefit others as much as possible. Promoting effective altruism means promoting the key ideas of effective altruism and growing the community of people who take these ideas seriously, and put them into action." 80,000 hours—Click for a longer rationale for why this topic might be important.
Click the linked title (or here) for an up-to-date list of project ideas related to this area.
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The psychology of reducing existential risk
"In 1939, Einstein wrote to Roosevelt: 'It may be possible to set up a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium…and it is conceivable — though much less certain — that extremely powerful bombs of a new type may thus be constructed.' Just a few years later, these bombs were created. In little more than a decade, enough had been produced that, for the first time in history, a handful of decision-makers could destroy civilisation. Humanity had entered a new age, in which we faced not only existential risks from our natural environment, but also the possibility that we might be able to extinguish ourselves." 80,000 hours—Click for a longer rationale for why this topic might be important.
Click the linked title (or here) for an up-to-date list of project ideas related to this area.
Supervision history
Current supervision
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Doctor Philosophy
Bridging the research-practice gap: Using implementation frameworks to scale evidence-based knowledge translation in healthcare
Principal Advisor
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Doctor Philosophy
Perceptions of Existential AI Risk to Inform AI Governance
Principal Advisor
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Doctor Philosophy
Improving adolescents' rationality to improve career decision-making skills and promote wellbeing
Principal Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
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Doctor Philosophy
AI Tutors As 'Metacognitive Pumps' For Learning and Calibrating Confidence
Associate Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
Media
Enquiries
Contact Associate Professor Michael Noetel directly for media enquiries about:
- AI Governance
- AI Risks
- Artificial Intelligence
- Effective giving
- Screen time
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