Overview
Background
I’m an Associate Professor of Psychology driven by the goal of safeguarding humanity’s future through effective AI governance. My career began with a strong focus on evidence synthesis, meta-analysis, and knowledge translation in health, education, and leadership settings. This background honed my ability to tackle large, complex problems by integrating insights from multiple research disciplines, and by designing interventions that reach people at scale.
I now channel these skills into understanding and mitigating the risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence. Drawing on my experience leading large, multi-stakeholder projects, I use rigorous methods—from systematic reviews to agile-based project management—to generate robust, transparent evidence for policymakers and practitioners. Through roles such as Director at Effective Altruism Australia, I also contribute to shaping philanthropic and public policy strategies around AI risk.
Ultimately, my work aims to merge best-practice research with real-world solutions, ensuring that advanced AI is developed and governed responsibly for the long-term benefit of society.
Availability
- Associate Professor Michael Noetel is:
- Available for supervision
- Media expert
Fields of research
Qualifications
- Bachelor (Honours), University of Sydney
- Masters (Coursework), The University of Queensland
- Doctor of Philosophy, Australian Catholic University
Research interests
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How do we do more good with our time and money (Effective Altruism)
How do we most effectively have a positive impact on the world? This stream of work involves helping people make better personal and policy decisions using reason and evidence. My approach integrates cost-effectiveness analysis, behavioural science, and education to address pressing global challenges.
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AI governance and existential risk
I investigate how advanced AI systems might threaten humanity’s future and what governance measures could mitigate these risks. My work focuses on existential safety, policy frameworks, and cross-sector collaboration to align AI developments with human values.
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Mapping AI hazards
Through the Survey of AI Risks (SARA) and the MIT AI Risk Repository, I map known and emerging AI threats. This research identifies harmful capabilities, timelines, and possible interventions, guiding policymakers and technologists toward effective countermeasures.
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Scaling up behaviour change through online education
How do we more cost-effectively scale-up behaviour change? Can online-learning bridge the gap? If so, how do we design online learning to better change behaviour?
Research impacts
My research has delivered practical benefits by translating evidence-based approaches into scalable interventions—initially in health and education, and now in AI governance. Past efforts helped improve physical activity levels in over 50,000 school students, guided practitioners with evidence-informed teaching resources, and influenced national curricula. Building on this success, I apply the same high-impact framework to emerging AI risks, collaborating with policymakers, philanthropic organisations, and industry to shape safer AI systems. By providing clear, reliable evidence on governance strategies, I help decision-makers adopt effective standards and practices, ultimately mitigating societal harms and driving responsible AI innovation.
Works
Search Professor Michael Noetel’s works on UQ eSpace
2023
Journal Article
School socioeconomic status context and social adjustment in children
Parker, Philip, Sanders, Taren, Anders, Jake, Shure, Nikki, Jerrim, John, Noetel, Michael, Parker, Rhiannon, Ciarrochi, Joseph and Marsh, Herb (2023). School socioeconomic status context and social adjustment in children. Developmental Psychology, 59 (1), 15-29. doi: 10.1037/dev0001463
2022
Journal Article
Combinations of physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep and their associations with physical, psychological, and educational outcomes in children and adolescents: a systematic review
Wilhite, Katrina, Booker, Bridget, Huang, Bo-Huei, Antczak, Devan, Corbett, Lucy, Parker, Philip, Noetel, Michael, Rissel, Chris, Lonsdale, Chris, del Pozo Cruz, Borja and Sanders, Taren (2022). Combinations of physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep and their associations with physical, psychological, and educational outcomes in children and adolescents: a systematic review. American Journal of Epidemiology, 192 (4), 665-679. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwac212
2022
Journal Article
Scale-up of the internet-based professional learning to help teachers promote Activity in Youth (iPLAY) intervention: a hybrid type 3 implementation-effectiveness trial
Lubans, D R, Sanders, T, Noetel, M, Parker, P, McKay, H, Morgan, PJ, Salmon, J, Kirwan, M, Bennie, A, Peralta, L, Cinelli, R, Moodie, M, Hartwig, T, Boyer, J, Kennedy, S G, Plotnikoff, R C, Hansen, V, Vasconcellos, D, Lee, J, Antczak, D and Lonsdale, C (2022). Scale-up of the internet-based professional learning to help teachers promote Activity in Youth (iPLAY) intervention: a hybrid type 3 implementation-effectiveness trial. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 19 (1) 141, 141. doi: 10.1186/s12966-022-01371-4
2022
Conference Publication
Scale-up of the iPLAY school-based physical activity intervention: A hybrid type 3 implementation-effectiveness trial
Lubans, D., Sanders, T., Noetel, M., Parker, P., Mckay, H., Morgan, P., Salmon, J., Kirwan, M., Bennie, A., Peralta, L., Cinelli, R., Moodie, M., Hartwig, T., Boyer, J., Kennedy, S., Plotnikoff, R., Hansen, V., Vasconcellos, D., Lee, J., Antczak, D. and Lonsdale, C. (2022). Scale-up of the iPLAY school-based physical activity intervention: A hybrid type 3 implementation-effectiveness trial. 2022 SMA Conference, Gold Coast, QLD Australia, 16-19 November 2022. Chatswood, NSW Australia: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jsams.2022.09.026
2022
Journal Article
Time-efficient physical activity intervention for older adolescents with disability: rationale and study protocol for the Burn 2 Learn adapted (B2La) cluster randomised controlled trial
Kable, Toby J., Leahy, Angus A., Smith, Jordan J., Eather, Narelle, Shields, Nora, Noetel, Michael, Lonsdale, Chris, Hillman, Charles H., Reeves, Penny, Oldmeadow, Christopher, Kennedy, Sarah G., Boyer, James, Stimpson, Leisl, Comis, Pierre, Roche, Laura and Lubans, David R. (2022). Time-efficient physical activity intervention for older adolescents with disability: rationale and study protocol for the Burn 2 Learn adapted (B2La) cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ Open, 12 (8) e065321, 1-11. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065321
2022
Journal Article
Optimal dose and type of exercise to improve cognitive function in older adults: a systematic review and bayesian model-based network meta-analysis of RCTs
Gallardo-Gómez, Daniel, del Pozo-Cruz, Jesús, Noetel, Michael, Álvarez-Barbosa, Francisco, Alfonso-Rosa, Rosa María and del Pozo Cruz, Borja (2022). Optimal dose and type of exercise to improve cognitive function in older adults: a systematic review and bayesian model-based network meta-analysis of RCTs. Ageing Research Reviews, 76 101591, 1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.arr.2022.101591
2021
Conference Publication
RAFT: a Real-world Few-shot Text classification benchmark
Alex, Neel, Lifland, Eli, Tunstall, Lewis, Thakur, Abhishek, Maham, Pegah, Jess Riedel, C., Hine, Emmie, Ashurst, Carolyn, Sedille, Paul, Carlier, Alexis, Noetel, Michael and Stuhlmüller, Andreas (2021). RAFT: a Real-world Few-shot Text classification benchmark. 35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2021) Track on Datasets and Benchmarks, Virtual, 6-14 December 2021. Maryland Heights, MO USA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.
2021
Journal Article
Evaluating the reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance of the Resistance Training for Teens program
Kennedy, Sarah G., Smith, Jordan J., Estabrooks, Paul A., Nathan, Nicole, Noetel, Michael, Morgan, Philip J., Salmon, Jo, Dos Santos, Gessika C. and Lubans, David R. (2021). Evaluating the reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance of the Resistance Training for Teens program. The International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 18 (1) 122, 1-18. doi: 10.1186/s12966-021-01195-8
2021
Journal Article
Correction to: Evaluating the reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance of the Resistance Training for Teens program (International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, (2021), 18, 1, (122), 10.1186/s12966-021-01195-8)
Kennedy, Sarah G., Smith, Jordan J., Estabrooks, Paul A., Nathan, Nicole, Noetel, Michael, Morgan, Philip J., Salmon, Jo, Dos Santos, Gessika C. and Lubans, David R. (2021). Correction to: Evaluating the reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance of the Resistance Training for Teens program (International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, (2021), 18, 1, (122), 10.1186/s12966-021-01195-8). International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 18 (1) 154. doi: 10.1186/s12966-021-01229-1
2021
Journal Article
Multimedia Design for Learning: An Overview of Reviews With Meta-Meta-Analysis
Noetel, Michael, Griffith, Shantell, Delaney, Oscar, Harris, Nicola Rose, Sanders, Taren, Parker, Philip, del Pozo Cruz, Borja and Lonsdale, Chris (2021). Multimedia Design for Learning: An Overview of Reviews With Meta-Meta-Analysis. Review of Educational Research, 92 (3), 413-454. doi: 10.3102/00346543211052329
2021
Journal Article
A systematic review of machine learning for assessment and feedback of treatment fidelity
Ahmadi, Asghar, Noetela, Michael, Schellekens, Melissa, Parker, Philip, Antczak, Devan, Beauchamp, Mark, Dicke, Theresa, Diezmann, Carmel, Maeder, Anthony, Ntoumanis, Nikos, Yeung, Alexander and Lonsdalea, Chris (2021). A systematic review of machine learning for assessment and feedback of treatment fidelity. Psychosocial Intervention, 30 (3), 139-153. doi: 10.5093/PI2021A4
2021
Journal Article
Influences on user engagement in online professional learning: a narrative synthesis and meta-analysis
Lee, Jane, Sanders, Taren, Antczak, Devan, Parker, Rhiannon, Noetel, Michael, Parker, Philip and Lonsdale, Chris (2021). Influences on user engagement in online professional learning: a narrative synthesis and meta-analysis. Review of Educational Research, 91 (4) 0034654321997918, 518-576. doi: 10.3102/0034654321997918
2021
Journal Article
School-based interventions modestly increase physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness but are least effective for youth who need them most: an individual participant pooled analysis of 20 controlled trials
Hartwig, Timothy Bryan, Sanders, Taren, Vasconcellos, Diego, Noetel, Michael, Parker, Philip D., Lubans, David Revalds, Andrade, Susana, Ávila-García, Manuel, Bartholomew, John, Belton, Sarahjane, Brooks, Naomi E., Bugge, Anna, Cavero-Redondo, Iván, Christiansen, Lars Breum, Cohen, Kristen, Coppinger, Tara, Dyrstad, Sindre, Errisuriz, Vanessa, Fairclough, Stuart, Gorely, Trish, Javier Huertas-Delgado, Francisco, Issartel, Johann, Kriemler, Susi, Kvalø, Silje Eikanger, Marques-Vidal, Pedro, Martinez-Vizcaino, Vicente, Møller, Niels Christian, Moran, Colin, Morris, John ... Del Pozo Cruz, Borja (2021). School-based interventions modestly increase physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness but are least effective for youth who need them most: an individual participant pooled analysis of 20 controlled trials. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 55 (13), 721-729. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2020-102740
2021
Journal Article
Effect of a scalable school-based intervention on cardiorespiratory fitness in children: a cluster randomized clinical trial
Lonsdale, Chris, Sanders, Taren, Parker, Philip, Noetel, Michael, Hartwig, Timothy, Vasconcellos, Diego, Lee, Jane, Antczak, Devan, Kirwan, Morwenna, Morgan, Philip, Salmon, Jo, Moodie, Marj, McKay, Heather, Bennie, Andrew, Plotnikoff, Ronald C., Cinelli, Renata, Greene, David, Peralta, Louisa, Cliff, Dylan, Kolt, Gregory, Gore, Jennifer, Gao, Lan, Boyer, James, Morrison, Ross, Hillman, Charles, Shigeta, Tatsuya T., Tan, Elise and Lubans, David R. (2021). Effect of a scalable school-based intervention on cardiorespiratory fitness in children: a cluster randomized clinical trial. JAMA Pediatrics, 175 (7), 680-688. doi: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.0417
2021
Journal Article
Time-efficient intervention to improve older adolescents' cardiorespiratory fitness: findings from the a 'Burn 2 Learn' cluster randomised controlled trial
Lubans, David R., Smith, Jordan J., Eather, Narelle, Leahy, Angus A., Morgan, Philip J., Lonsdale, Chris, Plotnikoff, Ronald C., Nilsson, Michael, Kennedy, Sarah G., Holliday, Elizabeth G., Weaver, Natasha, Noetel, Michael, Shigeta, Tatsuya T., Mavilidi, Myrto F., Valkenborghs, Sarah R., Gyawali, Prajwal, Walker, Frederick R., Costigan, Sarah A. and Hillman, Charles H. (2021). Time-efficient intervention to improve older adolescents' cardiorespiratory fitness: findings from the a 'Burn 2 Learn' cluster randomised controlled trial. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 55 (13), 751-758. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2020-103277
2021
Journal Article
Video Improves Learning in Higher Education: A Systematic Review
Noetel, Michael, Griffith, Shantell, Delaney, Oscar, Sanders, Taren, Parker, Philip, del Pozo Cruz, Borja and Lonsdale, Chris (2021). Video Improves Learning in Higher Education: A Systematic Review. Review of Educational Research, 91 (2) 0034654321990713, 204-236. doi: 10.3102/0034654321990713
2021
Journal Article
Information safety assurances increase intentions to use COVID-19 contact tracing applications, regardless of autonomy-supportive or controlling message framing
Bradshaw, Emma L., Ryan, Richard M., Noetel, Michael, Saeri, Alexander K., Slattery, Peter, Grundy, Emily and Calvo, Rafael (2021). Information safety assurances increase intentions to use COVID-19 contact tracing applications, regardless of autonomy-supportive or controlling message framing. Frontiers in Psychology, 11 591638, 1-11. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.591638
2021
Journal Article
Paths to the light and dark sides of human nature: a meta-analytic review of the prosocial benefits of autonomy and the antisocial costs of control
Donald, James N., Bradshaw, Emma L., Conigrave, James H., Parker, Philip D., Byatt, Lauren L., Noetel, Michael and Ryan, Richard M. (2021). Paths to the light and dark sides of human nature: a meta-analytic review of the prosocial benefits of autonomy and the antisocial costs of control. Psychological Bulletin, 147 (9), 921-946. doi: 10.1037/bul0000338
2021
Journal Article
An intervention for mental health literacy and resilience in organized sports
Vella, Stewart A., Swann, Christian, Batterham, Marijka, Boydell, Katherine M., Eckermann, Simon, Ferguson, Helen, Fogarty, Andrea, Hurley, Diarmuid, Liddle, Sarah K., Lonsdale, Chris, Miller, Andrew, Noetel, Michael, Okely, Anthony D., Sanders, Taren, Schweickle, Matthew J., Telenta, Joanne and Deane, Frank P. (2021). An intervention for mental health literacy and resilience in organized sports. Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 53 (1), 139-149. doi: 10.1249/MSS.0000000000002433
2021
Journal Article
The effects of the Australian bushfires on physical activity in children
del Pozo Cruz, Borja, Hartwig, Timothy B., Sanders, Taren, Noetel, Michael, Parker, Philip, Antczak, Devan, Lee, Jane, Lubans, David R., Bauman, Adrian, Cerin, Ester and Lonsdale, Chris (2021). The effects of the Australian bushfires on physical activity in children. Environment International, 146 106214, 1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106214
Supervision
Availability
- Associate Professor Michael Noetel is:
- Available for supervision
Before you email them, read our advice on how to contact a supervisor.
Available projects
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Improving decision-making and epistemics
"When we think about doing good in the world we usually think about solving specific problems, and doing so better than existing institutions and organisations. But you could also improve the world in a different way: by making it easier for key institutions and decision-makers to learn about the world and solve problems. This might involve helping people have better ‘epistemics’ – ways of gathering information and using it in reasoning – e.g. by helping people avoid common thinking errors, better evaluate expertise, or make more accurate predictions." 80,000 hours—Click for a longer rationale for why this topic might be important.
Click the linked title (or here) for an up-to-date list of project ideas related to this area.
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Building effective altruism
"Scared Straight is a program that takes kids who have committed misdemeanors to visit prisons and meet criminals to confront their likely future if they don’t change their ways. The concept proved popular not just as a social program but as entertainment; it was adapted for both an acclaimed documentary and a TV show on A&E, which broke ratings records for the network upon its premiere. There’s just one problem with Scared Straight: multiple studies have found that the program actually increases crime. The effect is so significant that the Washington State Institute for Public Policy estimated that each $1 spent on Scared Straight programs causes more than $200 worth of social harm.1 Research shows that many attempts to do good are like Scared Straight. But while many attempts to do good fail, some succeed, and the best are exceptional. One example of an outstanding opportunity is providing bed nets that protect people from malaria in sub-saharan Africa. The charity evaluator GiveWell estimates that a donation of <$2,000 to the Against Malaria Foundation will save someone’s life. But many people aren’t aware of the best ways to help others, and as a result, they miss opportunities to make a tremendous difference. Effective altruism is a growing social movement dedicated to using evidence and reason to figure out how to benefit others as much as possible. Promoting effective altruism means promoting the key ideas of effective altruism and growing the community of people who take these ideas seriously, and put them into action." 80,000 hours—Click for a longer rationale for why this topic might be important.
Click the linked title (or here) for an up-to-date list of project ideas related to this area.
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The psychology of reducing existential risk
"In 1939, Einstein wrote to Roosevelt: 'It may be possible to set up a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium…and it is conceivable — though much less certain — that extremely powerful bombs of a new type may thus be constructed.' Just a few years later, these bombs were created. In little more than a decade, enough had been produced that, for the first time in history, a handful of decision-makers could destroy civilisation. Humanity had entered a new age, in which we faced not only existential risks from our natural environment, but also the possibility that we might be able to extinguish ourselves." 80,000 hours—Click for a longer rationale for why this topic might be important.
Click the linked title (or here) for an up-to-date list of project ideas related to this area.
Supervision history
Current supervision
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Doctor Philosophy
Bridging the research-practice gap: Using implementation frameworks to scale evidence-based knowledge translation in healthcare
Principal Advisor
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Doctor Philosophy
Perceptions of Existential AI Risk to Inform AI Governance
Principal Advisor
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Doctor Philosophy
Improving adolescents' rationality to improve career decision-making skills and promote wellbeing
Principal Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
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Doctor Philosophy
AI Tutors As 'Metacognitive Pumps' For Learning and Calibrating Confidence
Associate Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
Media
Enquiries
Contact Associate Professor Michael Noetel directly for media enquiries about:
- AI Governance
- AI Risks
- Artificial Intelligence
- Effective giving
- Screen time
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