Overview
Background
I study the risks from advanced AI and the policies that could reduce them. As an Associate Professor of Psychology at UQ and an Affiliate Researcher at MIT FutureTech, I run large, transparent studies that help governments and the public understand where AI is heading. My team built the Survey of AI Risk (SARA), the largest study of how Australians perceive AI, and co-authored the MIT AI Risk Repository, a public catalogue of AI hazards cited in the International AI Safety Report (2024) and Australia's proposal for mandatory AI guardrails.
I make this analysis rigorous, but translate it in ways people can understand. For over a decade I have built systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and structured expert elicitations, including a Delphi study of 272 experts mapping AI risk across 24 subdomains. My current work grades frontier labs' safety frameworks against emerging law, tracks dangerous-capability progress, and benchmarks AI risk against the safety standards other industries already accept. I also chair Effective Altruism Australia, which directs over AU$7.5 million a year to cost-effective global programs.
Research interests
Reducing catastrophic risks from AI. Four priority risks drive the work: sudden loss of control, gradual disempowerment as decisions are delegated to AI, concentration of power, and misuse by rogue actors. I focus on which mitigations experts agree on and what would tell us a risk is rising.
Mapping and measuring AI risk. Through SARA and the AI Risk Repository, I identify hazards, track public attitudes, and build evidence policymakers can use.
Evidence synthesis and expert elicitation. Systematic reviews, meta-analysis, and Delphi methods: how to produce trustworthy evidence at the speed frontier AI demands.
Availability
- Associate Professor Michael Noetel is:
- Available for supervision
- Media expert
Fields of research
Qualifications
- Bachelor (Honours), University of Sydney
- Masters (Coursework), The University of Queensland
- Doctor of Philosophy, Australian Catholic University
Research interests
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Reducing catastrophic risks from advanced AI
I study how advanced AI could threaten society and which safeguards would reduce that danger. My work targets four priority risks: sudden loss of control, gradual disempowerment as we delegate decisions to AI, dangerous concentrations of power, and misuse by rogue actors. I focus on the mitigations experts agree on and the early signals that a risk is rising.
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Mapping and measuring AI risk
Through the Survey of AI Risk (SARA) and the MIT AI Risk Initiative, I track how the public perceives AI and catalogue the hazards these systems pose. SARA is the largest study of Australian attitudes to AI; the AIRI is a public reference cited in the International AI Safety Report. Both turn scattered concern into evidence that policymakers and journalists can use.
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Evidence synthesis and expert elicitation
The methods behind the rest. I build systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and structured expert panels (Delphi), including a study of 272 experts mapping AI risk across 24 subdomains. I pre-register, share data and code, and lead multi-institution teams. The goal is evidence solid enough to brief a minister, produced fast enough to keep pace with AI.
Research impacts
My research turns evidence into decisions. I have briefed federal departments and parliamentarians, plus ministries in Indonesia and Taiwan. Earlier work in health and education reached over 50,000 students and informed national curricula and WHO guidelines. I bring the same standard to AI: large, open, policy-ready evidence.
For journalists
Topics I can speak to:
- Risks from advanced AI, from misuse to loss of control
- Australian and global AI policy and public attitudes
- How AI risk compares to the safety standards we already demand of nuclear, aviation, and medicine
- How to weigh AI claims and forecasts
I have appeared on CNN, BBC, ABC, PBS NewsHour, and primetime Australian TV, and give clear, quotable answers on deadline.
For prospective PhD students
I am taking students to work on AI risk. Live projects include:
- Grading frontier labs' safety policies against SB 53, the RAISE Act, and the EU AI Code of Practice
- Public risk-tolerance surveys and expert Delphi panels
- Tracking dangerous-capability progress in frontier models
You would join a team linked to MIT FutureTech and the wider AI safety community, with strong support for methods, writing, and publishing. I hold nine national and institutional teaching awards, with a mean student rating of 4.8/5 across 2,390 students.
Works
Search Professor Michael Noetel’s works on UQ eSpace
2016
Journal Article
Scaling-up an efficacious school-based physical activity intervention: study protocol for the 'Internet-based Professional Learning to help teachers support Activity in Youth' (iPLAY) cluster randomized controlled trial and scale-up implementation evaluation
Lonsdale, Chris, Sanders, Taren, Cohen, Kristen E., Parker, Philip, Noetel, Michael, Hartwig, Tim, Vasoncellos, Diego, Kirwan, Morwenna, Morgan, Philip, Salmon, Jo, Moodie, Marj, McKay, Heather, Bennie, Andrew, Plotnikoff, Ron, Cinelli, Renata L., Greene, David, Peralta, Louisa R., Cliff, Dylan P., Kolt, Gregory S., Gore, Jennifer M., Gao, Lan and Lubans, David R. (2016). Scaling-up an efficacious school-based physical activity intervention: study protocol for the 'Internet-based Professional Learning to help teachers support Activity in Youth' (iPLAY) cluster randomized controlled trial and scale-up implementation evaluation. BMC Public Health, 16 (1) 873, 1-17. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3243-2
Supervision
Availability
- Associate Professor Michael Noetel is:
- Available for supervision
Looking for a supervisor? Read our advice on how to choose a supervisor.
Supervision history
Current supervision
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Doctor Philosophy
Red Lines: Intolerable AI Thresholds Informed by the Global Public and AI Experts
Principal Advisor
Other advisors: Dr Steve Lockey
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Doctor Philosophy
Balancing Promise and Peril: Public Communicationfor Responsible AI
Principal Advisor
Other advisors: Dr Natasha Matthews
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Doctor Philosophy
Bridging the research-practice gap: Using implementation frameworks to scale evidence-based knowledge translation in healthcare
Principal Advisor
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Doctor Philosophy
The Deception Dilemma: Balancing AI Utility and Safety in an Era of Advancing Capabilities
Associate Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
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Doctor Philosophy
Understanding and Disrupting Sycophantic Influence in AI-Mediated Decision Making
Associate Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
Completed supervision
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2026
Doctor Philosophy
Improving adolescents' rationality to improve career decision-making skills and promote wellbeing
Principal Advisor
Other advisors: Professor Jason Tangen
Media
Enquiries
Contact Associate Professor Michael Noetel directly for media enquiries about:
- AI Governance
- AI Risks
- Artificial Intelligence
- Effective giving
- Screen time
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