Crustal fault system dynamics and earthquake prediction (2002-2005)
Abstract
The greatest challenge in earthquake science is prediction. Yet this possibility remains elusive. However, recent advances using an innovative numerical simulation model provided the first clear evidence for an underlying physical mechanism for earthquake forecasting, and observational studies have recently identified two independent precursors suggesting that this mechanism operates in the crust. The proposed project will use advanced simulation models and an innovative, multidisciplinary approach to obtain an improved understanding of crustal fault system dynamics with the aim of resolving the earthquake prediction question and progressing towards the scientific underpinning needed for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting.''